E&P Risk Analysis, Prospect Evaluation & Exploration Economics


Cash Flow Analysis




• Introduction to the oil and Gas Industry




• History of Energy usage




• Basic Principles of Oil and Gas Economics




• Familiarization with Economic terms




• Setting up Cash Flow Calculation




• Depreciation Methods & Loss Carry Forwards




• Inflation




• Nominal & Real Cash Flow




• Abandonment & Sunk Costs




• Project Financing




Economic Indicators




• Economic Indicators Definitions




• Present Value Concept




• Discount Factor & Net Present Value




• Internal Rate of Return




• Payback Period




• Profit/Investment Ratio




• Incremental Projects




• Effect of Project Delay




Risks and Uncertainties




• Risk & Uncertainty




• Expected Value Concept




• Decision Tree Analysis




• Farm-out Decision




• Probability Analysis




• Sensitivity Analysis




• Probability Distribution




• Monte Carlo Simulation




Setting up Spreadsheet Calculation




• Introduction to Spreadsheet Calculation




• Simple Cash Flow Using Excel




• NPV calculations




• Application of economic indicators




Setting up Oil Field Development Model




• Setting up an Integrated Economic Model of a Typical Oil Field Development




• Case Study – Chevron Texaco Frade Project




• Project Sensitivity Analysis for the selected model