E&P Risk Analysis, Prospect Evaluation
&
Exploration Economics

Duration: 5 Days
Target Audience: Exploration Geologists, Geophysicists, Reservoir Engineers, Exploration Managers, Petroleum Economists, Decision-Makers
Delivery Mode: Classroom / Virtual with Practical Exercises and Case Studies
Level: Intermediate to Advanced

Course Overview

This intensive course covers key workflows and methods for evaluating exploration prospects, assessing geological and economic risks, and performing financial analysis for upstream investments. It integrates technical risking, volumetric estimation, probability analysis, and cash flow modeling to support exploration decisions.

Day-by-Day Outline

Day 1 – Exploration Prospecting and Play Analysis

Defining exploration plays, leads, and prospects
Play-based exploration: concepts and mapping
Prospect delineation and mapping structural/stratigraphic traps
Petroleum system analysis for prospect assessment
Exercise: Build a play map and identify potential leads

Day 2 – Resource Estimation and Risking

Deterministic vs. probabilistic volumetric methods
Gross rock volume (GRV), net-to-gross, porosity, saturation calculations
Assigning input parameter distributions
Monte Carlo simulation principles for volumetric analysis
Workshop: Perform probabilistic resource estimation for a prospect

Day 3 – Geological Chance of Success (GCoS) and Risk Analysis

Chance factors: reservoir, seal, trap, charge, timing
Building risking matrices and calculating composite GCoS
Common errors and biases in risk assessment
Integrating GCOS with volumetrics
Exercise: Assign GCOS to example prospects and calculate unrisked and risked resources

Day 4 – Exploration Economics and Cash Flow Analysis

Economic indicators: NPV, IRR, EMV, payback
Linking prospect risking to economic outcomes
Fiscal terms: royalties, production sharing, taxes
Building exploration project cash flow models
Workshop: Calculate EMV for prospects with different risk profiles

Day 5 – Prospect Portfolio Management and Decision Making

Ranking prospects and building balanced exploration portfolios
Portfolio risk-reward analysis
Decision tree and real options methods
Communicating exploration economics and risks to management
Capstone Project: Evaluate and rank multiple prospects for an exploration portfolio presentation

Expected Learning Outcomes

Evaluate exploration prospects with technical and economic rigor
Estimate resources using probabilistic methods and Monte Carlo simulation
Assign and integrate geological chance of success
Build basic cash flow models for exploration investments
Make informed decisions about prospect ranking and portfolio strategies

Customizable Add-ons
Tailored content for local geology (e.g. Nile Delta, Western Desert)
Lab visit or simulation hands-on demo
Integration with economics or production courses

Special Customization for Regional NOCs

- Includes legal and fiscal case examples from MENA (Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Algeria)
- Arabic-English bilingual delivery available
- Tailored licensing round simulation exercises
- Optional site visits to local oilfields or regulatory agencies

Trainer Profile

- Senior reservoir and exploration engineers from IOCs and NOCs
- Former advisors to government ministries
- Experts in petroleum contracts and economic modeling

Certification

Participants will receive a Certificate of Completion and a performance report including assessment outcomes and instructor feedback.