Course Overview

Day 1 – Defining Prospects and Play Concepts

• - Exploration terminology: plays, leads, prospects
• - Elements of a petroleum system (source, reservoir, seal, trap, charge, timing)
• - Prospect mapping: closure, spill point, and contouring
• - Understanding structural and stratigraphic traps
• - Exercise: Delineate and map a prospect from seismic and well data

Day 2 – Resource Estimation

• Hydrocarbon volume estimation methods (deterministic & probabilistic)
• Volumetric equations: GRV, net-to-gross, porosity, saturation
• Input parameters and uncertainties
• Monte Carlo simulation basics
• Workshop: Perform volumetric calculations for a prospect

Day 3 – Geological Chance of Success (GCoS)

• Key chance factors: reservoir, seal, trap, source/migration, timing
• Assigning probabilities to each chance factor
• Common pitfalls in risking
• Composite chance of success calculation
• Exercise: Build a risking table for example prospects

Day 4 – Economic Risk Assessment

• Commercial threshold and minimum economic field size
• Linking technical risk to economic scenarios
• Cash flow sensitivity to resource size and probability
• Decision tree and EMV (Expected Monetary Value) analysis
• Workshop: Calculate EMV for different risk scenarios

Day 5 – Integrated Prospect Evaluation and Portfolio Management

• Integrating technical and commercial evaluation
• Prospect ranking and portfolio optimization
• Communication of prospect uncertainty to stakeholders
• Case studies of successful and failed exploration campaigns
• Capstone Project: Evaluate multiple prospects and build a ranked exploration portfolio

Expected Learning Outcomes

• Define and map exploration prospects within plays
• Estimate hydrocarbon volumes with awareness of input uncertainties
• Assign geological chance of success using standardized workflows
• Integrate technical and economic risks for prospect evaluation
• Build prospect portfolios to support exploration strategies