Uncertainties & Geostatistics for Subsurface Managers



Statistical Analysis and Probability Theory



• Describing Data with Numbers



• Probability and Displaying Data with Graphs



• Random Variables, Probability Density Function (pdf)



• Expectation and Variance



• Bivariate Data Analysis



• Sample case: preparing a well log plot and identifying correlation




Descriptive Geostatistics



• Geologic constraints



• Univariate distribution and Multi-variate distribution



• Gaussian random variables



• Random processes in function spaces



• Geostatistical Mapping Concepts



• Structural Modeling



• Cell Based Facies Modeling



• Sample case: Analytical interpretation of centrifuge data to determine the relative permeability curve




Modeling Uncertainty



• Sources of Uncertainty



• Deterministic Modeling



• Models of Uncertainty



• Model and Data Relationship



• Model Verification and Model Complexity



• Sample case: Reservoir Modeling



• Creating Data Sets Using Models



• Parameterization of Sub grid Variability




Quantifying Uncertainty



• Introduction to Monte Carlo methods



• Sampling based on experimental design



• Gaussian simulation



• General sampling algorithms



• Simulation methods based on minimization



• Sample case: Monte Carlo method for determining oil and gas reserves



• Sample case: Multiwell systems calculation using Darcy’s law




Visualizing Uncertainty



• Distance Methods for Modeling Response Uncertainty



• K-means clustering



• Estimation using simple kriging



• Petrophysical Property Simulation



• Sample case: Oil reservoir uncertainty visualization